That leaves one division, the AFC East, and three wildcard spots up for grabs. Ok, so Minnesota doesn't have a strangle hold on the division with a much tougher schedule remaining (home against the Falcons and Giants) then Chicago does (home against Green Bay, then in Houston) but I feel like they will hang onto the division. If Minnesota wins one of their games and Chicago wins both, the division would go down to the conference record tie breaker, where Minnesota would hold a 8-4 record compared to the Bears 7-5 record. I just don't see the Vikings losing their final two games to give Chicago the division as Atlanta has struggled on the road and New York may be resting starters in Week 17. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears lose one of both of their final two games.
The New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins, and the New England Patriots are all knotted at 9-5 in the division. The Jets and Dolphins both control their own fate as they both own the tiebreakers over the Pats. If the Jets and Dolphins both win in Week 16, the division title will be on the line in Week 17. Well, I suppose that the Pats could win out and win the division even if both the Jets and Dolphins win in Week 16 if New York and Miami tie, but as we all know, the NFL doesn't allow ties, right Donovan McNabb?
However, I don't see the three teams going a combined 5-1 over the next two weeks, and I especially don't see the teams going 4-0-2. The Jets play in Seattle and the Dolphins play in Kansas City before their showdown in the Meadowlands. New England hosts Arizona this week before finishing the season in Buffalo.
The Jets should beat the Seahawks this week. New York is a better team then Seattle, but this is the classic trap game. Seattle has looked a little better these past few weeks, but they're still a 3-11 team. I just have this gut feeling that Favre will have one of those 1 TD, 3 INT games he puts up there every so often. The Jets also are not as good as their record indicates. They should have lost to Buffalo last week, and if the coin flip goes the other way, they lose to the Pats a few weeks ago and are sitting at .500 and aren't even in the discussion.
Miami might be the team to beat in the division. They are playing incredible football of late having gone 7-1 after a 2-4 start. Kansas City is terrible and Miami should have no problem with them, though they could fall under the trap game scenario that might hurt the Jets as well. I don't see it however because of the influence Bill Parcells now has over that organization. Also, they lost a close game to the Jets in Week 1, I don't see it happening again.
The Patriots seem to be the odd team out of the division, as they need not just one, but two teams to lose one of their final two games. Not out of the realm of possibility, but it will be hard to do as I see the Dolphins winning out. If the Jets lose to Seattle as well, Eric Mangini is just evil enough, and hates Patriots just enough (even though Belichick is the only reason he has a job) to subconsciously lose the game to the Dolphins and give them the division.
New England's best shot at the playoffs is to get the Wild Card berth and the 6-seed. I had doubts earlier this week that the Patriots could win out to make the playoffs, especially once the Pro-Bowl teams were announced and the Cardinals boasted the starting quarterback and both receivers for the NFC squad considering how terrible the Patriots secondary has been this season. The Cardinals however will likely be without Anquan Boldin and may be resting players as they are fairly well slotted as the 4th NFC Seed. Also, the entire Northeast will be covered in a giant blizzard this weekend, which will slow down the Cards passing game for sure. Combine that with the Patriots being basically unbeatable in December, and the Pats should win a fun game to watch. New England also beat the Bills more handily then the score would indicate a few weeks ago, and I don't see that changing the final week of the season.
So where does that leave us? My gut is telling me the Dolphins win the division as they take the final game of the season (regardless of if the Jets lose to Seattle). Even if Miami and New York win in Week 16, one of the teams has to lose in Week 17. Since I see the Pats winning out, the loser of the AFC East showdown in the Meadowlands will be out of the playoffs. For New England to win the Wildcard however, they need Baltimore to lose once.
The Ravens have a tough final schedule, playing against another Wildcard hopeful in Dallas this weekend. Even with all the controversy surrounding TO over the past week plus, and with Romo's ailing back, I still expect the Cowboys to beat Baltimore. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Jags beat Baltimore in Week 17. Jacksonville was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender this season and have been anything but. Teams like that are tricky in the final week of the season, playing for nothing but personal pride, and in a few cases, a better free-agent contract.
The NFC wildcard is much more tricky to handicap. Tampa, Atlanta, and Dallas all stand at 9-5, and Philly is 8-5-1. Tampa finishes at home against San Diego and Oakland. Atlanta travels to Minnesota and then hosts St. Louis. The Cowboys host Baltimore and the Eagles are in Washington before the two teams meet in Philly to end the season.
The Eagles have to win out and need two of the other teams to lose out for them to make the playoffs. Not going to happen. The Cowboys should beat Baltimore, and will probably win in Philly as well. The Bucs should also win out. San Diego has been very disappointing and should be looking to next year in the game, not to mention the game is at home for Tampa Bay. Oakland is terrible and the Bucs should have no problem with them.
I see Atlanta losing in Minnesota this week and the Vikings will respond with a win with a chance at their first division title since 2000. Atlanta should be given a ton of credit though, being this good as they are after losing such an incredible on-the-field talent in Michael Vick. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Falcons sneak into the playoffs however, as they should beat the Rams, and the Eagles would love nothing better then to spoil a division rivals chances of a playoff berth with a win to end out their season, even if they won't make the playoffs themselves. And I did predict the Falcons to beat the Giants in the playoffs around Week 10, about a year after I predicted the Giants would end the Patriots perfect season (though I thought that would happen in Week 16, not the Super Bowl).
The point is, they play the games for a reason. I see the Doplhins, Patriots, Cowboys and Buccaneers taking the last four playoff spots still up for grabs. Either way, it's going to be a great end of the season with a whole lot of scoreboard watching.
