March Madness

Tomorrow marks the start of my favorite sporting event of the year; the NCAA Basketball tournament. Cinderella will stay at the dance just a little bit too long before her ride becomes a pumpkin. The mighty will fall and their fans will be left to ponder what might have been. Some are already concerned they will fall into that category because they lost key players for the season. I'm looking at you UNC (Lawson), Marquette (James), and, sigh, you UConn (Dyson).

Actually, before Dominic James went out with a broken foot, Marquette was my dark horse national champion. Between Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, and James, Marquette had an incredible back court. It's still pretty good, which is why I still think they'll make some noise, but they can't fully recover without James. UNC and UConn still have enough talent even without Lawson and Dyson, plus Lawson should be back by the second weekend, which is about when UNC should need him anyways.

EAST REGION
This is a pretty top heavy bracket. After Louisville and Michigan State, I'm not all that impressed with the rest of the region. Kansas may have won the Big 12, but I don't feel like the Big 12 is all that great this season. Plus, if Blake Griffin doesn't miss games (including the Kansas game) with a concussion, Oklahoma wins the Big 12. Wake is the type of team that really annoys me come March.

Wake is hit or miss. I mean, they beat UNC, Duke, and Clemson twice. They also lost to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, and got knocked out of the ACC tourney by Maryland in their first game. Which Wake Forest will show up? I have no idea, but I always seem to pick teams like this the wrong way. I'd rather just err on the side of caution because even if they make it a bit further then I thought, they will still throw up a stinker sooner or later and get bounced.

I like Louisville to win this bracket. They won both the regular season and tournament in by far the best conference in America in the Big East. That counts for a lot. Against most teams in the bracket also they have a coach who's been there in Rick Pitino, but Tom Izzo at MSU negates that edge. I like Louisville to beat MSU in the Elite 8 to bring Pitino to yet another Final 4. After all, Magic Johnson and Mateen Cleaves aren't walking through the door for MSU.

1st round winners: Louisville, Siena, Arizona, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Kansas, USC, Michigan State
Sweet 16: Louisville, 'Zona, WVU, MSU
Elite 8: Louisville, MSU
Net Cutters: Louisville


WEST REGION
This bracket is UConn's bracket to lose. In fact, it's Calhoun's bracket to lose. For some reason, Calhoun keeps staying with his normal offense and keeps the balls in the hands of the guards. This is all well and good because UConn has some great guards, but they have Thabeat and Adrien down low. These two bigs should be unstoppable but they don't get the ball enough to dominate.

Just look at the 6 overtime game UConn and Syracuse played. 'Cuse's bigs had fouled out, yet Thabeat and Adrien weren't getting the ball. No one on the Orange could stop them, yet the guards were dominating the ball. If UConn gets the ball down low, no team in the nation can stop them, but if they don't, the Huskies are looking at another disappointing finish.

That's the thing that scares me the most about this UConn team. Jeff Adrien is the only player on the roster who has won a post season game. Adrien made it to the Elite 8 as a freshman and lost to George Mason when Denham Brown's 3 rattled out. The next year, UConn lost to Syracuse in the Big East tourney and didn't make the NCAA. Last year, UConn again lost in the first round of the Big East tourney, and got upset but San Diego State in the NCAA's after AJ Price tore his ACL.

But then, sometimes experience is over rated. How many games did that George Mason Final Four team win before those ones? How about OSU making the finals two years ago lead by freshmen? And UConn does have Jim Calhoun, who has been there before, both times coming out of the West, and beating Duke in the Final 4. I know beating Duke doesn't mean he has any more experience then if UConn had beaten someone like UNC, Texas, Michigan State, Louisville, etc, but I just like remembering they beat Duke.

But UConn should be able to ride Thabeast and Adrien all the way to the Final Four this season. No one in the region has anything special down low, and somehow UConn got the weakest bracket. I mean seriously, Memphis? When's the last time they played someone good? Though bringing up Memphis does scare me a little bit as UConn's biggest weakness is their free throw shooting. Oh well, they won it in 2004 with their point guard and best player (Taliek Brown and Okafor) both being 50-something free throw percentage shooters.

1st round winners: UConn, BYU, Purdue, Washington, Marquette, Mizzou, Cal, Memphis
Sweet 16: UConn, Washington, Marquette, Memphis
Elite 8: UConn, Marquette
Net Cutters: UConn


EAST REGION
This has to be the toughest region. Pittsburgh, Villanova, Texas, and a very hot FSU team make this division filled with tough outs. You might've noticed I skipped Duke and Xavier. Xavier has lost two of its last three games which isn't a good. Yes, I know UConn has lost its last two games, but they were in the Big East to a fellow #1 seed and in 6 overtimes. It's not quite the same as losing in the A-10.

Yeah, I know Duke is a 2 seed. Yes, I know they beat FSU twice in the last few weeks. And yes, I know they won the ACC tournament, but honestly, I don't think they are very good. I have seen parts of at least five Duke games this season and not once did I think they looked very impressive. They can hit threes, but that's about it. I honestly don't know how they keep winning games.

I know it was December, but when I watched Texas play someone earlier this year I thought one thing to myself. "Holy crap, this team could win it all." I don't think that as much anymore because they have underperformed all season, but on a talent level, they are a top-10 team, certainly better then Duke. I just see them playing two really good games and knocking out Duke in the second round, then losing their focus in their off days and losing to Nova.

Here's the thing about Pittsburgh. I think in a format like the NBA, they win the title. I can't see a team beating them in a best of seven series, but thats why March is so much fun. One game and your out. End of story. And that's all it will take for Pitt, is one game. More specifically, one game where the refs are calling ticky-tack fouls. If Blair gets in foul trouble in a latter round, Pitt will get knocked out. It's going to happen before the Panthers can win six games, there's no way around it.

I like Nova in this region. You may be noticing a little bit of a Big East Bias here, and I can accept that. But let's be honest, the Big East is the best basketball conference. Sure, it helps when you have over 200 teams in your conference, but the top teams are really the best in the country. I mean, it's tough to argue with having three #1 seeds (first conference to ever do this) and two #3 seeds. The top teams in the mega-conference that is the Big East are sick and battle tested, end of story.

1st round winners: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Portland State, UCLA, Villanova, Texas, Duke
Sweet 16: Pitt, FSU, Nova, Texas
Elite 8: Pitt, Nova
Net Cutters: Nova


SOUTH REGION
I hope hope hope that this region goes how I think it will. I would love to see an Elite 8 game with Blake Griffin playing against Tyler Hansborough. I also hope that Lawson is fully healed by then so UNC lovers won't have that "What if?" to fall back on when they lose to Griffin. You know Lawson will play, but to what level will he be back? I'm guessing somewhere 85%, which will be just a bit less then they need him to be.

There's something different about Hansborough this year to me this year too. I don't know exactly what it is, but its there. I mean, he'll still get his stats, but I just feel like this year, that's all he'll get. Last year I felt like he would just go off for 35 and 15 if everyone else was terrible on a night to keep UNC winning. This year, I'm not as convinced. I dunno, it could just have been that in the games I saw UNC play they didn't need those performances they needed last year, but something is a little different to me.

I've liked Griffin and Oklahoma all year to make the FInal Four. The only reason their not a 1 seed is because of those games they lost without Griffin, and the unexplainable loss to Ok. State in the Big 12 tourney. Still, this team is pretty stacked, and I like Griffin to lead the Sooners to the Final Four this year.

And hey, at least I didn't go with 'Cuse to give an all Big East Final Four. But then, how can you get behind a team with Eric Devendorf on it, even if Johnny Flynn is a stud?

1st round winners: UNC, Butler, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, ASU, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma
Sweet 16: UNC, Zaga, 'Cuse, Oklahoma
Elite 8: UNC, Oklahoma
Net Cutters: Oklahoma

FINAL FOUR
I like UConn and Oklahoma to make it to the championship game. UConn handled Louisville in Louisville earlier this year and again, Blake Griffin.

The championship game however is where Griffin's magic runs out. UConn has the bigs to slow him just enough. I see some foul trouble for Griffin plus him having trouble handling Adrien and Thabeet. And don't sleep on Gavin Edwards, who will get his time next season when Adrien and Thabeet are both gone. Kid always comes to play and makes some huge plays.

Also, the only big who has given Thabeet trouble is Blair. Blair does the one thing that troubles Thabeet. Blair is incredible physical. Griffin can be physical, but it's not the only thing he does. He's more of a finesse player, or at least, he tries to be. You can make up for a lot of mistakes against finesse when you're 7'3". Plus it's hard to play finesse when you're sitting on the bench.

Back in 2004 Calhoun took Okafor out of the Duke game because he had two fouls in the first and didn't let him back in. Then all of the Duke bigs got their 3rd foul in the first half and all fouled out so Okafor could dominate that game and get UConn to the title game. I see the same thing happening again.

The pick: UConn
MOP: Jeff Adrien