The 2009 NFL Wild Card weekend is upon us, and all the games, at least on paper, should be close games that come down to the wire. Without further ado, here's a look at the games and who should live on to play in two Sundays.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals. Saturday. 4:30. NBC.
The end of this game should be very interesting assuming it's still close, which I feel it will be. Arizona has a dominant passing attack with the best 1-2 wide receiver punch in the playoffs with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bouldin, and possibly the entire NFL (tough call between them and Moss/Welker in New England), but they don't have any rushing game to speak of. Atlanta on the other hand averaged more then twice as many rushing yards as Arizona over the course of the season.
Ok, obviously it's never better to be trailing in a game, but if I had to be trailing in this game, I'd much rather be Arizona. With a passing attack like the Cards have, they should be able to run an effective 2 minute offense to come back, but their clock killing abilities are suspect. Atlanta on the other hand can run the ball well, but how will Matt Ryan fare as a rookie in the playoffs? He's been solid all season, rightfully earning the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, but can he keep it going? I feel like Ryan plays great for the first three quarters before the Falcons turn the game over to Michael Turner to run out the clock before the nerves can overcome Ryan.
Also, I called it around Week 10 when I was congratulating a Giants fan on a win, told him to enjoy the win because the Falcons were going to upset New York in the playoffs. After calling around Week 10 that the Giants were the only team capable of beating the Patriots (thought it would be in Week 17, not the Super Bowl, but...) based solely on gut, so I can't have the Falcons being knocked out of the playoffs before they get a shot at the Giants. Plus, Atlanta deserves something good after they lost Michael Vick due to his poor personal decisions, especially due to his physical talents, Vick should've been the most dominant quarterback of our generation, if not of all time.
Falcons 27
Cardinals 23
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers. Saturday. 8. NBC.
Peyton Manning just won the MVP award, but that might be the last good thing that happens for the Colts this season. I actually think Chad Pennington deserved the MVP (did I actually just write that? Wow) but that's not the point of this post. The Colts were incredibly lucky this season and probably should've finished closer to the Chargers 8-8 record then the 12-4 mark they had. When they played the Patriots, they were one Jabbar Gaffney drop on a touchdown (Pats settled for 3) or one David Thomas penalty away from losing that game, which would've put the New England at 13-3 on the season and depending on the tie-breakers, the top seed, and dropped the Colts out of the playoffs, again depending on tie-breakers.
Both teams are hot, with the Colts and Chargers winning 9 and 4 games respectively to end the season. I just feel that the Chargers are the better team in this game. Throw in the fact that Manning has struggled against San Diego in the past, and that the Chargers just seem to look better, and I like San Diego. I also have a feeling as well that Tomlinson will have the best game of anybody this weekend, somewhere over 120 yards and 3 TD (one passing) and the fact that the game is in San Diego, Chargers win in a game that isn't as close as the final score would tell you.
Colts 24
Chargers 34
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins. Sunday. 1. CBS.
Just like in the early game on Saturday, this game features a rookie quarterback leading a team with a bird as a mascot in a road playoff game. And, just like the Saturday game, I see the rookie quarterback leading his team to victory.
I know people have trouble trusting rookies or players starting for the first time in their career, but I feel that given the right player and team, that shouldn't be an issue. Yeah, it's hard, but if a player can do it all season, shouldn't they be able to maintain that level of success in the playoffs? Didn't Tom Brady win the Super Bowl MVP in his first year as a starter? Sure, you'ld like a guy who's been there before and won't be rattled, but that doesn't always work out well. Brett Favre has won a Super Bowl, and last season if he doesn't throw a terrible pick against the Giants, maybe the Packers drive and win the NFC Championship, then the Patriots win the Super Bowl and go 19-0.
Anyways, the reason I like the Ravens most is because the Wild Cat offense that has worked so well for the Dolphins is not nearly as effective the second time a team goes against it. The Dolphins killed New England because of the Wild Cat in their first game, but in game two, the Patriots shut the formation in check and won the game. Not only will the Ravens do the same thing, but they shut the defense down the first time as well. No Wild Cat, no victory. Miami should be incredibly proud even with a first round playoff loss, going from 1-15 to 11-5 and division champ. Baltimore's defense is scary good, getting close to the level they were at when they won the Super Bowl. Baltimore will shut down Miami, and will go on to play next week.
Baltimore 20
Miami 13
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings. Sunday. 4:30. FOX.
I honestly don't like either team to win this game. Since I don't see either team winning, I would generally go for a tie, but that can't happen in the playoffs. This game proves to be a very confusing game for Donovan McNabb if it stays tied through the extra 15 minutes, as his concept of overtime would have been shattered twice in a single season.
No possible final score would surprise me in this game. An Eagles rout, a close or overtime game, or a Vikings rout. I tend to lean towards the Eagles winning this game based on three things. First, they finished the season in a very impressive fashion, crushing the Cowboys to get into the playoffs. It is Week 14 however that makes me like the Eagles a bit more in this game. Both team won by single digits against their opponents. The big difference however was the Eagles beat the #1 NFC seed, defending champion Giants, and the Vikings beat the Lions. Not a good sign that late in the season, especially since the Eagles had a larger margin of victory.
The Eagles also have two more things on their side. They have been there before and should not be rattled. Also, they have Donovan McNabb at quarterback, not Tavaris Jackson. Jackson has ben playing better of late, but he is still Tavaris Jackson.
Eagles 26
Vikings 23 (OT)
One more thing on the playoffs. Ok, it's the rules that New England missed the playoffs. It's unfortunate, especially since they were playing some of, if not the, best football in the AFC in December, but rules are rules. What I don't like is the way that it is decided. Basically, the tie breakers that knocked the Pats out of the playoffs this season for the division title and the last Wild Card berth came down to their record against the rest of the AFC. Here's a look at the combined record of the teams the Patriots, Dolphins, and Ravens played against in the AFC this season (doubling the records of division opponents)
New England - 78-50
Miami - 73-55
Baltimore - 63-63-2
Miami and Baltimore both finished 8-4 against the AFC while New England finished 7-5. Yes, New England had the chance to win many of those games and didn't come through, as their players would attest to, but the strength of competition was not close, especially between the Pats/Dolphins and the Ravens. But, it is what it is, but since the Patriots are forced to watch from their recliners this January, they should also be given an earlier pick in the draft. Bottom line is playoff teams should pick after non-playoff teams, end of story. The NFL needs to fix a their system. Either don't let in 8-8 teams over 11-5 teams, or give the team that missed the playoffs the better pick in the draft. Imagine how much worse this would have been too had Philly lost to the Bengals and been in a 4-way tie for the last wild card spot...
Either way, enjoy the football everybody. Check back next week for Divisional Round picks.
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